Hazelnuts are the largest single line in Turkish agricultural exports, and 2026 is the year the market turned. A buyer who covered at the top of last season is sitting on expensive stock; a buyer waiting for the bottom risks missing a crop that is large but not unlimited. This post sets out what actually happened, on official figures, and what belongs in a contract this season.
Türkiye is not a large hazelnut supplier — it is the market. Production sits in a narrow green belt along the Black Sea coast, never more than about 30 kilometres inland, running from Zonguldak eastward almost to the Georgian border. Under the 2014 council decision on hazelnut areas, planting is legally permitted in 16 provinces and 108 districts. Roughly 735,000 hectares are under hazelnut, farmed by more than 350,000 households, mostly on small family holdings.
In 2025 Türkiye exported 240,609 tonnes of hazelnuts and hazelnut products for USD 2.256 billion. Germany alone took 62,771 tonnes worth USD 602 million and Italy 47,969 tonnes worth USD 432 million, between them nearly half the export value. France followed at 14,244 tonnes and USD 127 million, then the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and Austria. This is a European trade, and specifically a confectionery trade.
One structural shift is worth noting. Until the 1980s some 90 percent of exports left as in-shell or plain kernel. Today around 28 processed hazelnut products are shipped, and processed goods have risen from about 27 percent of hazelnut export value to roughly 40 percent. Buyers increasingly source paste, diced, blanched or roasted product rather than raw kernel, and the specification questions change accordingly.
The 2025 crop failed. TÜİK figures cited by the Ministry of Trade put Turkish production down 38.5 percent year on year. On the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council's kernel-basis series, world output fell from 587,410 tonnes in 2024/25 to an estimated 454,500 tonnes in 2025/26, and Türkiye's shortfall is most of that gap.
Price did what price does. Türkiye's average export unit value rose from USD 8,125 per tonne in 2024 to USD 9,376 per tonne in 2025, a record. Volume went the other way: 325,497 tonnes in 2024 against 240,609 tonnes in 2025. Kernel exports from September 2025 through July 2026 came to 186,400 tonnes, down 37 percent on the same period a year earlier. The benchmark price for 11/13 mm Turkish kernel peaked around USD 1,790 per 100 kg in late September 2025.
Read plainly: the trade sold a quarter less product for only fifteen percent less money, and European processors paid for it.
The crop came back, and hard. The INC's projection for 2026/27 is 809,940 tonnes in-shell; Turkish traders have put it nearer 700,000 tonnes. Either figure dwarfs the 518,000 tonnes of the previous season. Harvest opened around 8 August and ran across the Black Sea belt through the month, with early field reports describing good yields and strong kernel outturn, particularly in Giresun.
Prices followed. The 11/13 benchmark stood at USD 850 per 100 kg on 3 August 2026, under half the September 2025 peak. By 20 August, FOB Istanbul kernel was quoted at EUR 7.35–7.45 per kg for 11/13 mm and EUR 7.85–7.95 for 13/15 mm, still easing one to two percent week on week.
Türkiye's Grain Board sets an annual purchase price that anchors farmer expectations. For 2026/27 it was set at TRY 250 per kilogram for Levant quality, TRY 255 for Giresun and TRY 245 for Sivri, calculated on a 50 percent kernel yield. In lira that is a 28 percent increase on the previous season's TRY 195; in dollars the rise is closer to 9 percent.
The interesting part is what the free market is doing underneath it. Through the Black Sea provinces, new-crop trade has been reported in a band of TRY 160–210 per kilogram, with Giresun material around TRY 200, below the state price. A two-tier domestic market like this makes export offers unusually variable: two exporters can quote very differently depending on where and when they bought. Do not treat any single offer as the market, and do not assume the state price is a floor under your FOB.
Crop year, written down. After a short season there is old-crop kernel in cold store bought at very different prices. Require 2026 crop on the contract, the packing list and the carton.
Calibre, not adjectives. Hazelnut kernel trades by diameter band — 9/11, 11/13, 13/15 and so on. The spread between 11/13 and 13/15 was about EUR 0.50 per kilogram in August. "Medium" is not a specification.
The aflatoxin clause, and who carries it. This is the recurring cause of rejected containers in this trade. Widely applied EU tolerances for hazelnuts are 10 µg/kg total aflatoxin with 5 µg/kg B1 for ready-to-eat product, and 15 µg/kg total with 12 µg/kg B1 for product going for further processing or sorting. Confirm the current levels for your destination before drafting, then agree three things explicitly: which category your lot falls into, who performs sorting and colour-sorting, and the sampling plan and laboratory that decide the result. A contract that names a limit but not a sampling method has settled nothing.
Yield basis on in-shell. The state price is quoted on 50 percent kernel outturn. If you buy in-shell, the outturn assumption is the trade, so put it in writing.
Product form and its paperwork. Raw, roasted, blanched, diced and paste are different products with different tariff treatment, shelf life and testing history. Deciding this late is how delivery dates slip.
Timing, deliberately. In a market that has halved and is still easing, the temptation is to wait. The counterweight is that a large crop is drawn down by the same European demand that paid record prices last year. Splitting cover across the season is usually a better answer than a single conviction call in either direction.
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